Pilot Pass Rates 2022: A Turbulent Trend?
When I decided to start this website, the first thing I wanted to do was to get a rap on the current state of the aviation training industry. Through my research, I found that during the previous year (2022), DPEs reported rising failure rates.
My research ultimately led me to examine the current state of industry demand, its effects on pass rates and training quality, and the effects of several significant events that shaped recent history.
This data-driven look seeks to uncover what's happening and identify some training industry trends from an independent perspective. Are the recent failure rates a ripple in the pond, or a sign of things to come?
Pilot Checkride Pass Rates
Here's the pass rate history for Private, Commercial, and CFI checkrides. The data represents the initial pass rate percentage for the practical tests.
Flight Instructors
While CFI's are the lowest performing group, that's expected. It's one of the hardest checkrides, after all. The data does indicate significant improvements during recent years. What's also clear is that, like a domino effect, when CFIs are doing better, their students also perform better.
Students
Historically, private pilots score slightly lower than commercial pilots, which is expected. Commercial pilots have more experience, and the two checkrides are almost identical, if not for minor 'standard' differences and extra maneuvers.
Combined Average
Looking at the combined values, it's down in the last year: The real question is, what happens next? We're doing much better than in previous years, and fluctuations are expected. That said, it's a trend we need to turn around.
We'll never get to a 100% pass rate, but we should aim for at least above 80% as a 'good' standard to maintain. Clearly, there's some work to be done, and we're heading in the wrong direction to reach that goal. But, I believe we can do it.
PASS RATE HISTORY
By looking back at history, we can gain insight into the future. We can cross reference historic changes in the training environment and the state of the world itself and attribute them to the change in trends.
Four significant events might be considered:
the global financial crisis of 2008,
the introduction of the 1500-hour rule for ATP in 2013,
the transition to Airmen Certification Standards (ACS) starting in 2016, and
the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.
2008: Decline In Pass Rates
The financial crash in 2008 left its mark on flight training. While the crisis peaked in 2008, its ripple effects were felt in the following years.
Reduced disposable income and economic uncertainty could have led to fewer flight training hours and less frequent training. In other words, pilot candidates, strapped for cash, take the checkride before they're truly ready and fail more often.
2013: Rise In Pass Rates
Introduced in 2013, the '1500-hour rule' is rooted in the Colgan Air crash in 2009. Pilots used to be able to get their ATP and go right-seat with as little as 250 hours.
After the rule's introduction, there was increased pressure on pilots to accumulate hours, leading some to seek flight instructor roles not out of a genuine desire to teach but as a means to log more flight time.
This might have led to a situation where some instructors were less prepared or less focused on teaching and more focused on accumulating hours. In any case, this would have led to an influx of relatively inexperienced CFIs after 2013. The period between 2013 to 2015 reflects this with a drop in PVT and COM performance, aka, their students.
However, as these CFIs built hours and experience, the quality of instruction improved, leading to better pass rates. The 1500-hour rule may be responsible for the uptick in CFI performance, and the resulting increased performance of their students. They've all been doing consistently better since 2015.
A CFI's more prolonged stay in the training ecosystem brings instructional expertise, translating to better training and setting the benchmark for upcoming CFIs. You can't deny the increased success of CFI pass rates over the years following 2013.
Another factor to consider is the introduction of the Airman Certification Standards (ACS) for Private in 2016 and Commercial in 2017. Students have been improving steadily and consistently since these implementations. Even CFI pass rates boomed following an initial wobble, probably owed to CFI's adjusting to the new normal.
The changes may have indirectly influenced the success rates of CFIs, even if their evaluations are still under the Practical Test Standards (PTS). Teaching the ACS's holistic risk management and scenario-based approach likely bolstered future CFIs candidates.
2020: Decline in Pass Rates
While the pandemic struck in 2020, its ramifications on the aviation training industry would have been felt more profoundly in the following months. Travel restrictions, lockdowns, health concerns, potential job losses, and financial pressures would have interrupted regular training schedules.
These patterns suggest that while aviation training is sensitive to external shocks, it also has a built-in resilience and adaptability.
Airline Industry Demand
Ultimately, CFI talent is challenging to retain. At some point, most of the workforce is heading to the airlines or other jobs, and high turnover rates are the norm. Many people argue that industry demand has an impact on flight training.
Let's look at the industry demand and its effects on pass rates over the years. For this, we can look at the hiring rates of major US carriers.
For those unfamiliar with the hiring dynamics, major US airlines typically draw from smaller regional airlines where most pilots start their careers. An uptick in major carrier hires affects the hiring rates of regionals who need to replace those pilots.
General Industry Growth
Major carrier hires have seen an increase over the years, owing to the general growth of the industry over time. Of course, it was affected by the financial crisis in 2008, as airlines would have cut back during periods of reduced travel. Likewise, COVID-19 in 2020 had a similar effect on the industry.
Industry Demand VS. Training Quality
When looking at normalized data, we're essentially transforming the values of the datasets so that they fit within a standard scale, usually between 0 and 1. Essentially, 0 or '0%' indicates the dataset at its lowest benchmark, while 1 or '100%' means its all-time peak value.
This method can be handy when highlighting trends, especially when comparing datasets with different units or scales. Considering the normalized data for major carrier hires and combined pass rates, key trends and crossover points emerge.
These two metrics have an inverse relationship: When hiring demand drops, the quality of training goes up. When hiring rises, the quality of training goes down.
This is likely due to more experienced CFIs leaving the training ecosystem when the industry calls them in to fill vacant positions. What's interesting is the three crossover points.
The points where the lines cross are moments when the training quality (combined pass rates) is balanced with the demand. The fact that these crossover points are slowly rising over time indicates that this balance point occurs at a higher performance level than in previous years.
This might indicate that even though rising demand harms the training quality of new pilots, the training industry has risen to the challenge and adapted to provide better training over the years, even in response to higher CFI turnovers and increasing industry demand.
Final THOUGHTS
CFIs serve as the backbone of the entire pilot training ecosystem. Their influence is seen in more than just individual pass rate data. It's also evident in their impact on incoming pilot batches when experienced instructors leave the training sphere – a trend typically dictated by industry demand.
The recent efforts towards refining training standards, such as the ACS, have undeniably left a positive mark on pass rates. Considering how upcoming inclusions, like the much-anticipated CFI ACS, will influence these rates in the coming years is intriguing.
We've recently witnessed a dip in pass rates after a promising upward trend. This decline can likely be attributed to recent events.
The resurgence of the travel industry post-pandemic has led to an accelerated hiring pace, depleting the reservoir of experienced CFIs. This, paired with training disruptions during the economic downturn and exacerbated by today's inflation and skyrocketing living costs, has created a challenging landscape for instructors and students alike.
Only the data from 2023 will reveal the truth. I genuinely hope we'll see a turnaround and discover we're that much closer to achieving an 80% average.
Addressing Industry Demand
Addressing the core issue linking pass rates and industry demand is delicate, with many influencing factors. To inspire individuals to consider a lasting career as a CFI, a range of strategies, including better compensation and benefits combined with a lowered ATP entry barrier, seems necessary.
Implementing such strategies might serve a dual purpose: Retain invaluable CFI expertise and address the ongoing pilot shortage problem without stretching flight school budgets or burdening students financially.
This approach could redefine the CFI role, transforming it from a stepping stone to a genuine, attractive career, thereby adding stability to the training environment. Reducing ATP requirements and enhancing CFI career appeal might also insulate the training sector from volatile industry demands.
Maintaining a consistent, high-caliber pool of instructors to mold the next wave of aviators while ensuring a steady supply of well-trained pilots for the airlines remains paramount to the pilot training industry's future triumphs.
Read more
