Is There Really A Pilot Shortage Problem?
Delving into the chatter about 2022's falling pilot pass rates, the uproar over the industry's demand for pilots and the fierce debate around pilot shortages became impossible to sidestep.
The lines are drawn: Some argue the pilot shortage is a genuine crisis, while others scoff at its very existence. Whispers suggest it's all a grand hoax, a sly strategy for airlines to sacrifice safety and boost profits.
Determined to sift fact from fiction, I decided to flight plan a mission of my own. Is the pilot shortage real or just smoke and mirrors? Let's dive into the data and uncover the truth for ourselves.
The DEBATE
The debate over the existence of a pilot shortage, its reasons, and its potential solutions has multiple stakeholders with varying perspectives and interests. If you need to get up to speed, here's a general breakdown of the controversy.
The Contenders
ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association) represents the interests of pilots and often emphasizes issues related to safety standards, training quality, and pilot welfare.
Regional Airlines Association (RAA) represents regional airlines, which often serve as the starting point for many pilots' careers. They focus on operational efficiency, costs, and maintaining a steady flow of qualified pilots.
Major Airlines require pilots with more experience and typically hire pilots from regional airlines.
Flight Training Institutions aim to enroll students and ensure they graduate with the necessary qualifications.
ARGUMENTS ON THE PILOT SHORTAGE
ALPA's Perspective: ALPA denies a pilot shortage. They claim that airlines use the shortage argument to weaken training and safety standards and cut costs. They also argue for maintaining safety and training standards and incentivizing the next generation to join the industry.
RAA's Perspective: Regional airlines have raised alarms about a pilot shortage for years. They claim that the higher minimum hour requirements for ATP certification, among other factors, have shrunk the pool of eligible pilot candidates. They often advocate for alternative pathways to ensure a steady supply of pilots.
THE CONTROVERSY
Misrepresentation Accusations: Given the different stakes, the RAA accuses ALPA of misrepresenting the pilot shortage to further their interests. Conversely, ALPA argues that the RAA and other entities are lying about a pilot shortage to push for regulatory changes motivated by profit.
The Prime Suspect
1500-Hour Rule: A significant point of contention is the '1500-hour rule', which requires first officers (co-pilots) to have at least 1500 hours of flight experience (or less in some cases) to obtain an Airline Transport Pilot (ATP) certificate (or a restricted 'R-ATP').
The rule was born from the tragic Colgan Air accident in 2009 and was implemented in 2013. Before the ruling, you could get an ATP with as little as 250 hours. While the rule aims to enhance safety by ensuring pilots have more experience, critics argue it has exacerbated the pilot shortage, especially for regional airlines.
The DATA
The foundation of any analysis lies in the numbers. When I dug into the figures for the US Part 121 major carrier hires each year (representing industry demand) and paired them with the annual ATP issuances (a gauge of industry supply), the narrative began to unfold.
Carrier Hires And ATP Issuances
AVIATION HIRING HISTORY
The trajectory of hires has, for the most part, been on an upward climb, thanks to the aviation industry's general growth. However, the 2008 financial crisis saw this growth halt abruptly, with hiring plummeting in 2009 almost to a standstill.
Fast-forward to 2020. As the world braced itself amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, airlines, faced with an unprecedented challenge, made drastic cutbacks. Travel has since rebounded. With many breaking free from lockdowns, there's a palpable thirst to reclaim missed adventures and break away from the monotony of four walls.
The Ebb and Flow of ATP HANDOUTS
The trend for ATP issuances isn't as clear-cut. Instead of a consistent upward trajectory, ATPs appear in wave-like patterns. To better understand this, let's break down specific segments of the timeline.
2009: RISE IN ATP Issuances
What's interesting is the narrative surrounding the 1500-hour rule. Following the Colgan Air crash in 2009, there was a noticeable increase in ATP certificates issued. This likely corresponds with anticipating the 1500-hour ruling and an eagerness to secure ATP certificates before the rule's implementation.
2013: DECLINE IN ATP Issuances
After the 1500-hour rule took effect, there was a dip in the number of ATP certificates issued. This decline suggests that once the regulation came into play, the barrier to entry for ATP became more substantial and costly. Fewer pilots pursued or attained ATP certification, which creates a potential pilot shortage problem.
The notable spike in 2016 might be a ripple effect from the regulatory change. Pilots who missed the 250-hour window were essentially 'caught in the crossfire.' Already fully committed to their flight training when the rules shifted, they would likely need an additional two to three years to amass the necessary flight hours. This bubble could represent the last pilots who began training before the rule change.
2020: PANDEMIC & ATP BACKLOG
Some sources attribute the spike in ATP certifications post-2020 to a backlog during the pandemic. Disruptions included halted training, temporary closures of training centers, and deferred exams. Once restrictions were lifted, there was a rush to catch up.
Suppose the post-pandemic spike in ATP certificates is indeed due to backlog. In that case, the number of new entrants into the industry may be artificially inflated, meaning the pilot shortage problem could be even more pronounced than the numbers suggest.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND MISMATCH
Post-2013, fewer ATP certificates were being issued while the demand for pilots in major carriers continued to rise. The continuous hiring increase by major carriers, combined with the decline in ATP issuances post-2013, will strain the industry, particularly as older pilots retire and fewer new pilots arrive to fill their roles.
The ATP Buffer
Although there was a mild squeeze after the 2008 financial crisis, the supply of ATPs gradually recovered. A healthy growing buffer can be observed…until the 1500-hour rule in 2013.
Since then, the buffer between supply and demand has been steadily eroding until, most recently, demand is exceeding supply, even with the potentially inflated numbers of ATP issuances in 2022.
THE DATA-DRIVEN TRUTH
So, which is the stronger argument? Based on the data we've examined, it's challenging to deny the existence of a pilot shortage. How else can you interpret the figures? By looking at the cumulative data.
CUMULATIVE Hires And ATP Issuances
The problem with CUMULATIVE DATA
You might glance at the cumulative data and feel reassured seeing an ever-growing number of ATPs. When examining the cumulative data alone, the ratio between ATPs and hires looks almost 2:1. But it only tells part of the story.
Those who oppose the pilot shortage often cite cumulative data to argue that plenty of ATPs are available to meet demand. Let's use more straightforward numbers to demonstrate how cumulative data from the past might mask the issues we face today.
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ATP Issuances: 10
Hires: 5
Ratio: 2:1 (ATP's for every job post)
Hiring Pool: 5 (ATP's still available)
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ATP Issuances: 10
Hires: 7
Ratio: 1.4:1 (Dropping)
Hiring Pool: 8 (5 from last year plus the 3 remaining this year)
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ATP Issuances: 10
Hires: 12
Ratio: 0.8:1 (Dropping)
Hiring Pool: 6 (8 from last year. 2 got hired from the pool, none were added)
The Problem: By Year 3, the hiring pool was less than the previous year, and the hires were eating into surplus ATPs. When demand increases more than supply, the ratio of ATPs to job positions drops. The hiring pool will shrink if you can't create ATPs faster than they're being hired.
The Cumulative Story:
Year 3 Cumulative ATPs: 30
Year 3 Cumulative Hires: 24
Cumulative Ratio: 1.25:1 (Much higher than 0.8:1)
And there's the crux of it: The historic cumulative ratio is not valid for the current circumstances. Cumulative numbers overlook the yearly fluctuations and mask the shrinking hiring pool.
In scenarios with past surpluses of ATPs, these surpluses can mask current or future deficits when all the numbers are lumped together. Applying this to our real-world data, the ideal market situation before 2013 inflates the cumulative ratio after 2013. This can indicate a healthier balance of ATPs to jobs than what is currently the reality.
Accounting for the hiring pool
We can remove the veil and expose the hiring pool when we utilize the same calculations as in our previous example.
This doesn't mean that we've run out of pilots, but it does mean that the industry has been feasting on a pilot surplus since 2013, a river that's starting to run dry.
These figures alone suggest that there are around 40,000 surplus ATPs available. But this is a highly inflated number.
RADICAL ASSUMPTIONS
The hiring pool ignores some significant factors about how many people are actually employable. It assumes that every ATP in the hiring pool:
Is willing or interested in working for an airline at all.
Is available to work for an airline due to career change, family commitments, etc.
Can relocate for the job.
Can obtain a 1st class medical certification.
Will successfully pass an airline interview.
Will make it through airline training.
Is under the mandatory retirement age of 65.
Doesn't have a criminal conviction or accident history that could affect employability.
These are just a few of the possibilities that shrink the hiring pool.
To make matters worse, it doesn't account for the fact that pilots who lose their jobs for whatever reason (furloughed, retirement, early retirement, terminated, career change, etc.) might not return to the hiring pool. These numbers don't address the career exit rate versus new hires.
A Fair representation
If demand keeps increasing and supply remains the same or decreases, you'll eventually run out of pilots. That's a fact.
The yearly dynamics show us the real-time balance (or imbalance) between supply and demand. This is vital for proactive measures and understanding the genuine state of the industry.
The Yearly Dynamics
Looking at the rate of change over the years starts to reveal the truth about the current situation. Before the 1500-hour rule (2013), supply kept pace with demand. After its introduction, the gap began to close.
You can also see that the hiring pool remained steady before 2013. After 2013, things take a turn, and the growth of the hiring pool slows. After a blip in 2017, the pandemic was the proverbial nail in the coffin, stoking the flames of an already burning fire.
As of 2020, three things have happened:
Demand for pilots has skyrocketed to insane levels: Travel demand has surged after long periods of lockdowns.
ATP issuances have fallen behind demand: There is also the likelihood of inflated numbers due to backlogs resulting from the pandemic.
The hiring pool is now shrinking at an alarming rate: The hiring pool rate depicted is also inflated. It can't account for all the issues mentioned earlier.
FORECASTING TURBULENCE FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY
The hiring pool represents the surplus of available ATPs. Once this surplus dries up, demand becomes directly tethered to supply. In such a scenario, the market demand for new hires won't have the luxury to exceed the supply of ATPs. Instead, it will be firmly constrained by the number of ATPs being trained annually. What happens then?
A PRECARIOUS SITUATION
Airlines Starve for Talent: Airlines will find themselves on a perpetual treadmill, taking in ATPs as fast as they're trained, without any cushion for growth or unexpected hiring needs.
Flight Schools Go Into Overdrive: At the training end, there will be a palpable sense of pressure and racing against time, churning out ATPs in a conveyor belt fashion to meet the relentless demand.
Airline's Scale Back: Devoid of any flexibility to hire rapidly, airlines will be forced to curtail expansion plans or even current operations due to a shortage of pilots.
This will be disastrous for individual airline growth and the broader industry's potential to expand and serve increasing global travel needs. It may even put US-based airlines on the back burner as they fail to remain competitive against international competition.
THE PREVAILING WINDS OF PILOT MIGRATION
When major airlines pull pilots from regionals, they're not adding fresh talent to the aviation ecosystem. Instead, they're merely redistributing the existing pool of ATPs.
This migration exerts pressure on regional airlines, making them the front-liners in the pilot shortage phenomenon, not the major carriers. Regionals will scramble as their experienced pilots get lured away by major airlines.
While major carriers might enjoy a period of abundant choice in their hiring practices, this is a zero-sum game. Every pilot hired by a major airline, from a regional, is a pilot that needs to be replaced. This vacuum means regional airlines are searching for new pilots in a pipeline that's dwindling.
IT ALL FEELS EERILY FAMILIAR.
DOES 1500 HOURS MAKE SAFER AIRLINE PILOTS?
The 1500-hour rule has positively affected General Aviation training quality. Still, it has undeniably created a new problem of shortages and increased training costs substantially. However, claims about the rule reducing accidents within the scheduled carrier environment are not so convincing.
US Part 121 Accident Statistics
The last time the US had a large-scale fatal accident was in 2009, a commendable safety achievement. However, non-fatal accidents in US Part 121 operations are on an upward trend. The significant reduction in 2020 can largely be attributed to reduced flying hours during the pandemic.
The 1500-hour rule, introduced in 2013, appears to have done nothing to facilitate a reduction in non-fatal accidents, which means the potential for fatalities still looms. If anything, it's been rising since 2013.
The pilots involved in the Colgan Air disaster had well beyond 1,500 hours each. The NTSB investigation spotlighted other culprits: fatigue, training deficiencies, lack of crew coordination, and inappropriate responses to critical flight situations, like an aerodynamic stall.
So, one must question: What relevance does 1,500 hours spent predominantly in a single-engine trainer have for a pilot receiving type-rating training for a multi-crew aircraft like the Dash-8?
While experience is undoubtedly valuable, the quality and relevance of that experience is what truly matters.
A CALL FOR COLLABORATION
While discussions and debates on tackling this challenge are necessary, it's imperative to prioritize safety. The RAA emphasizes the need to modernize pilot training and increase career opportunities by lowering the barrier to entry. ALPA wants to stand by the 1500-hour requirement, believing it enhances safety.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
With all this said, any rhetoric that paints efforts to improve efficiency in pilot training and increase access to aviation careers as 'anti-safety' is misleading and counterproductive. The industry needs collaborative solutions, not divisive tactics.
The pilot shortage problem is as much an industry concern as it is a political and social issue. Honestly, you can write an entire article about the politics surrounding the 1500-hour rule.
As stakeholders in aviation, including those of us who want to contribute to pilot training in our own way, we must collectively acknowledge the challenge, understand its nuances, and work towards innovative and safe solutions.
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Proactively tackle obstacles that hinder aspiring pilots, particularly the steep costs associated with high-quality education and training.
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Shift emphasis away from excessive hours spent on Single-Engine, Single-Pilot Resource Management. Prioritize and reward programs emphasizing Multi-Engine Crew Resource Management, ensuring pilots are better prepared for airline employment.
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Advocate for reimagining regulations in a manner that harmoniously integrates safety, training excellence, and pilot supply considerations.
It's essential to approach this debate with an understanding that each stakeholder operates from a perspective influenced by their unique challenges and interests. The ultimate solution must balance safety, economic viability, and the sustainability of the industry's workforce.
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